State of the Market Update
2008 was an amazing year in so many different aspects, from the economy to politics & the weather. The real estate market here on the Kenai Peninsula had a great year despite what we all heard in the news media. The upper Kenai Peninsula saw an 11% increase in our median home prices over 2007! No, you didn’t read that wrong, 11%. Our median home price for 2008 was $188,000, up from $169,000 just a year earlier. Our volume and number of transactions was down for the year, 10% and 14% respectively.
Outlook for 2009, anybody’s guess is as good as mine. I think we will have another good year I would expect an increase in home values, nothing more than a couple of percent. I expect our volume and number of transactions to also decrease again, but only slightly. Current low interest rates are going to help kick-off a good start to 2009, we are looking forward to it! If you or anybody that you know is thinking about buying or selling this year, let the real estate experts at Crane & Associates Realty help.
Foreclosure Update from Aaron Swanson @ Residential Mtg
The news media is still full of news on foreclosures. While in some areas it is bad, Alaska has remained stable and steady. As of December 2008 1 in every 416 households in the United States had a foreclosure filing against them. The hardest hit states are Nevada (1 in every 71 households), Florida (1 in every 168 households), California (1 in every 147 households), and Arizona (1 in every 163 households). In the state of Alaska it is 1 in every 964. On the Kenai Peninsula it is 1 in every 2547 households. Anchorage is 1 in every 825 with the hardest hit area being the Mat Su valley at 1 in every 317. Alaska’s residential foreclosure rates are within a normal range when compared to historical data coupled with a normal increase in delinquency in the fall and winter.
Many markets in the country have seen house prices drop significantly. On the Kenai Peninsula we have not seen this happen. With the commercial business growth we are seeing combined with the slow and stable growth our properties values have had, I feel that our market is still stable.
Well, not exactly, it’s quite the opposite, in fact. But the title grabbed your attention didn’t it? I’ve never been a big fan of the “negative” spin that the media puts on our news but figured I would give it a try and see if I could get your attention.
A recent article from MSN stated that 1 in 10 households in the US are in the foreclosure process. That may mean that they are just a month or two behind on their payments or that their home is on the chopping block for being foreclosed on. I would really like to know where they come up with this stuff!
The most recent national foreclosure data (October 29th, 2008) shows that 1 in 475 households are in the foreclosure process; this information was provided by Aaron Swanson of Residential Mortgage located here in Soldotna. Even the hardest hit state of Nevada is only at 1 in 82. So where does the 1 in 10 come from, I mean really! Talk about skewing the numbers! I honestly believe, that, if the news media would publish positive news instead of focusing on the negative, our economy would be in a totally different position at this time. We all know that it’s the bad news that sells.
So how is our real estate market here in the Kenai & Soldotna area? I’ve haven’t compiled the complete stats for the year (check back right after the first of the year), but we are down on our volume of transactions, however, our median price is up about 8 or 9%. Over the past 20 years the real estate market on the upper Kenai Peninsula has seen 5 or 6% appreciation per year on average. Our foreclosure rate is 1 in every 2777 households that are in some state of the foreclosure process.
Overall our market is looking very good and I would anticipate 2009 to be similar or even better than 2008. New addition of Lowes & the upcoming arrival of Wal-Mart, coupled with very low interest rates should make for a perfect time to buy.
Looking to buy or sell real estate in the Kenai & Soldotna area? Call the real estate professionals at Crane & Associates Realty to help you!
Kenai & Soldotna Real Estate Market Update
Last week I blogged about the state of our local Real Estate Market here in the Kenai & Soldotna area, I stated in last week’s post that I did not believe we had an increase in foreclosures in our market but did not have any data to confirm this belief. Aaron Swanson from Residential Mortgage e-mailed me some foreclosure date to back up my blog this morning.
Given this information, I believe we are sitting pretty good in our Market here on the Kenai Peninsula
With interest rates still hovering around 6%, it’s still an excellent time to buy your home in the Kenai & Soldotna area.
Give me a call or shoot me an e-mail for all of your Real Estate needs.
Foreclosure data compliments of Aaron Swanson @ Residential Mortgage, thank you Aaron!
If you didn’t catch Aaron Swanson’s article on our Real Estate market on the Kenai Peninsula then you can still catch it here. With all of the doom and gloom news that we hear from the lower 48, it makes one wonder if we are experiencing the same problem here on the Kenai Peninsula?
All of the data says no we are not experiencing a meltdown or even a down market. Are we seeing our normal seasonal slowdown around the holidays? Yes. Have we seen an increase in foreclosures in our market? Not to my knowledge. We are seeing roughly the same numbers of foreclosures & foreclosure inspections as we have had in the past few years. The market in the greater Kenai & Soldotna area has seen good steady growth over the last couple of years, particularly in entry-level homes and waterfront properties. In the Soldotna market we have been seeing about 11% appreciation in home values over the last few years with a 10 year average of 4.6% which is a good steady rate of appreciation that is sustainable. Click on the graph to view the market data for the past 10 years in the Soldotna market.
Being a member of Allen F. Hainge’s elite Cyberstars (a by invitation only network of less than 200 real estate professionals around the country who use technology to better serve their clients) we often give updates on each of our markets around the United States. While there are areas that are experiencing a down market, there are still many markets that are similar to ours and experiencing strong growth contrary to what the national media would have you believe. Unlike the market in Florida & Las Vegas, to name a few, that have had amazing growth the last few years, they are now experiencing the worst of the down markets.
I hear a lot of questions about if this is still a good time to buy. The answer is a big YES! With interest rates looking at going below 6% again and with over a 8 months supply of homes on the market (anything over 6 months of supply is considered a buyers market) this is a perfect time to buy your new home. For current interest rates or for other mortgage questions, give Aaron Swanson a call at Residential Mortgage or visit his website @ http://www.alaskasbestmortgage.com.
Finally some good news in the media that is relevent to our own market, and not about something that is happening thousands of miles away.
Keep checking back for market updates, I’ll be posting more soon.
*The information or data used in this publication is copyrighted by AK MLS, Inc. 2007 and no portion may be reproduced, redistributed or retransmitted without the express permission of AK MLS, Inc. Further, AK MLS, Inc. does not warrant the accuracy of the information or data contained herein." The accuracy of this information is not guaranteed.
Just in time for the Holidays, enter to win $1,000.
Visit our sweepstakes page and sign up, it's that easy!
Don't forget that this weekend is Progress Day's in Soldotna. This will the 47th annual Progress Days celebration. Parade will start at 11:00 am with activites to continue afterwards at the Soldotna Creek Park.
Hope to see you there!
Things are pretty much wrapped up with the Caribou Hills Fire. 55,648 total acres were burned and is currently about 80% contained. No official total of cabins & outbuilds lost is avaible, last official count is 80+ cabin, & 100+ outbuildings. All equitment has been released from the fire. They will continue to monitor the fire from the air daily.
Jim Matti has put together a slide show, which I can converted to pdf's.
Part 1, Part 2 & Part 3, thanks for the pictures Jim!
Oilwell road and the flight restrictions have all been cleared.
Hope everybody has a great & safe 4th of July weekend. Remember fireworks are not allowed on the Peninsula!
Looks like we are at about 70% contained and around 55,000 acres or so. We probably won't get much more than that as the eastern line of fire is on the refuge and they want a minimal impact.
7/1/07 New Update
Check out the cool map, it shows how the fire progressed on each day
Progression Map, New updated Topo Map
Yesterday with the warmer temps & winds, there were having flare ups all over. The helicopters & hot shot crews were busy getting them knocked back down.
The restricted airspace will be lifted from 10pm to 8am everyday unless conditions change drastically. Fire is at 55,000+ acres and 66% contained.
Last nights updated press release
WILDFIRE: Work had just begun on land that was to hold the cabin intended for soon-to-wed couple.
By BRANDON LOOMISbloomis@adn.com
Published: June 27, 2007 Last Modified: June 27, 2007 at 10:37 AM
SOLDOTNA -- What started as two families' wedding gift to their children ended disastrously in the Caribou Hills wildfire that has consumed the backcountry retreats of dozens of families.
Vicki Steik, the Homer woman who owns the land where the fire started last Tuesday, said she was donating it for a cabin to be built in anticipation of her daughter's upcoming wedding. The groom's parents were sharpening a shovel to start the earthwork when the shower of sparks ignited dry grasses that burned out of control.
"It's just so sad," Steik said Tuesday. "I have a lot of friends whose cabins have been destroyed and I know how much those cabins meant to them. It just breaks my heart."
The Steik family has deep roots in Ninilchik, the gateway to the Caribou Hills. The recreation area draws backcountry enthusiasts from around the Kenai Peninsula and is considered the area's premiere snowmobiling playground. By Tuesday the fire had consumed 86 square miles, destroying at least 88 cabins and remote homes.
"They're all our friends and neighbors," Steik said. "It's devastating. It's heartbreaking. What a tragic (way) for my daughter to start her married life."
For days people who lost property had mentioned Steik's name, though to most her relation to the fire was unclear. She said she had discussed the fire with her family but not with friends.
On Tuesday she declined to name her daughter's intended in-laws, though a state fire investigator was preparing to release the findings this week.
The couple tried furiously to stamp out the fire before it rushed down a hillside and obliterated the first cabin, the state investigator said.
Before they found themselves cut off from a road out and had to be evacuated by helicopter, the two beat the flames with the shovel and with shirts, Alaska Division of Forestry wildfire investigator Sharon Roesch said. Roesch interviewed them last Tuesday night on the Oil Well Road helicopter pad where firefighters delivered them.
They told her they were getting ready to build a cabin on vacant land.
"It's a sad story, actually," Roesch said. "They were just getting ready to build."
The fire started from sparks off a hand-held grinder powered by an electrical generator, according to Roesch. Steik said the shovel was new and the future in-laws tried to grind a film off of it.
Steik's daughter, Michelle, did not return a phone call on Monday and was reported absent from work in Ninilchik on Tuesday.
Roesch said she was trying to determine whether the incident merits a misdemeanor citation for violating state fire statutes. If so, the state could ask for compensation, though the penalty frequently is adjusted according to an offender's ability to pay.
"Nobody can pay a million dollars," she said, and this firefighting effort eclipsed that mark in its first week. More than 500 firefighters are on hand including several crews from the Lower 48.
The law protecting state forests says that "A person who, during the fire season, throws away lighted tobacco, cigar, cigarette, match, firecracker, or other burning material on forested land, whether public or private, is guilty of a misdemeanor."
It further states that "A person who knows of a fire or sets a fire on forested land owned, possessed, or controlled by the person, shall exercise due care to prevent the uncontrolled spread of the fire."
It does not specifically mention sparks, Roesch noted, and whether this case is a violation is open to some interpretation.
Regardless of the criminal consequences, Roesch said she hoped people affected by the fire would show some understanding.
"They tried to slap it out with the shovel and the shirts off their backs," Roesch said. "They're lucky they didn't get hurt."
Originally the two feared for the consequences to family members, Roesch said, but since the fire went on to torch dozens of cabins and homes, "I'm sure today they're worried about more than that."
"People are going to hold people responsible, but I hope they don't develop any hatred," Roesch said.
Rob Coreson, who lost his uninsured cabin with equipment and backcountry vehicles, said his friends with Caribou Hills property aren't in a very forgiving mood. Insurance was not an option for most because of the area's remoteness from fire departments.
He said he and others consider the fire starters neglectful because they should have had more on hand to stop a potential fire. Others who use the area have fire extinguishers and other prevention tools on hand, he said.
"People in that area are careful," Coreson said. "They're just super careful when they cut wood or anything. They're not happy one bit."
That goes for Coreson himself, who estimated his losses at $100,000. He guessed that hitting the flames with a shovel and shirts probably just fanned them on.
"I think it's neglect," he said. "They can say what they want, (but) I think it's a hugely wrong way to put a fire out."
Steik said she hopes people will respond rationally. "Emotions are very high," she said. "We're all concerned about safety, personal safety. I just hope people will recognize it was a terrible accident."
The wedding will go on, and soon, she said.
"We're trying not to let it spoil what should be a very, very happy day for us."
State forestry officials late Tuesday said the fire had grown slightly to a little over 55,000 acres, and was about 60 percent contained as firefighters continued to smother hot spots inside the fire and near structures. Hotter weather and windier conditions forecast for today were expected to test containment efforts.
New Maps
Another Map
Here are some of our pictures from last nights trip in.
Our Cabin
cabin
forest behind cabin
more forest
hillside where cabin use to be
looking to the south
Charlies road before
Charlies road after
Spared
Well one would have thought thats what was going on by the long line of cars & trucks waiting at the end of the pavement at 7pm last night. Like a shot from a cannon @ 7, we were off like a herd of turtle's up Oilwell road.
What a difference a week can make. On our way in you could see smoke still rising from tree stumps and wood chip piles. It was amazing to see so many cabins that had survived, 6 days ago I didn't think there would be a single one left standing.
The fire appeared to burn very hot & fast in some areas, and would skip over a patch and then continue on burning. You could see a nice green tree standing right next to a completely burnt tree, just makes you wonder.
I'll upload our pictures from last nights trip in a little while.
Newest Map, 55,000 acres
Taxpayers Claim for reduction of Assessment
Acres & Percent burned by Ownership
Flight Restrictions Map
Click on the Link for updated pictures from the hills
Caribou Hills Fire Pictures
Click on the link to view "After the Wildfire". Covers things to exspect and be awere of as everybody heads into the hills.
After the Wildfire
According the newest public update, they have reached 43% containment of the fire. The high winds forecasted for the yesterday & today did not materialize, which was a big help to the fire fighters.
There will be no public meeting tonight as they are opening up Oilwell road tonight @ 7.
Tuesday Morning update
Jim Matti's weather station is back online.
Click on the links below to view his fire updates with pictures. Thanks for the updates & pictures Jim!
Update #1, Update #2
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